Weather factors in the short-term forecasting of daily ambulance calls

Ho Ting Wong, Poh Chin Lai*

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

23 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

The daily ambulance demand for Hong Kong is rising, and it has been shown that weather factors (temperature and humidity) play a role in the demand for ambulance services. This study aimed at developing short-term forecasting models of daily ambulance calls using the 7-day weather forecast data as predictors. We employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to analyze over 1.3 million cases of emergency attendance in May 2006 through April 2009 and the 7-day weather forecast data for the same period. Our results showed that the ARIMA model could offer reasonably accurate forecasts of daily ambulance calls at 1-7 days ahead of time and with improved accuracy by including weather factors. Specifically, the inclusion of average temperature alone in our ARIMA model improved the predictability of the 1-day forecast when compared to that of a simple ARIMA model (8.8 % decrease in the root mean square error, RMSE = 53 vs 58). The improvement in the 7-day forecast with average temperature as a predictor was more pronounced, with a 10 % drop in prediction error (RMSE = 62 vs 69). These findings suggested that weather forecast data can improve the 1- to 7-day forecasts of daily ambulance demand. As weather forecast data are readily accessible from Hong Kong Observatory's official website, there is virtually no cost to including them in the ARIMA models, which yield better prediction for forward planning and deployment of ambulance manpower.

原文英語
頁(從 - 到)669-678
頁數10
期刊International Journal of Biometeorology
58
發行號5
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2014 7月
對外發佈

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 生態學
  • 大氣科學
  • 健康、毒理學和誘變

指紋

深入研究「Weather factors in the short-term forecasting of daily ambulance calls」主題。共同形成了獨特的指紋。

引用此