Spatio-temporal and stochastic modelling of severe acute respiratory syndrome

Poh Chin Lai*, Kim Hung Kwong, Ho Ting Wong


研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

5 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)


This study describes the development of a spatio-temporal disease model based on the episodes of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) that took place in Hong Kong in 2003. In contrast to conventional, deterministic modelling approaches, the model described here is predominantly spatial. It incorporates stochastic processing of environmental and social variables that interact in space and time to affect the patterns of disease transmission in a community. The model was validated through a comparative assessment between actual and modelled distribution of diseased locations. Our study shows that the inclusion of location-specific characteristics satisfactorily replicates the spatial dynamics of an infectious disease. The Pearson's correlation coefficients for five trials based on 3-day aggregation of disease counts for 1-3, 4-6 and 7-9 day forecasts were 0.57-0.95, 0.54-0.86 and 0.57-0.82, respectively, while the correlation based on 5-day aggregation for the 1-5 day forecast was 0.55-0.94 and 0.58-0.81 for the 6-10 day forecast. The significant and strong relationship between actual results and forecast is encouraging for the potential development of an early warning system for detecting this type of disease outbreaks.

頁(從 - 到)183-192
期刊Geospatial Health
出版狀態已發佈 - 2013

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 醫藥(雜項)
  • 健康(社會科學)
  • 地理、規劃與發展
  • 健康政策


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