Sources of current account fluctuations in Taiwan: 1989–2015

Yu Hsi Chou*, Chun Yen Tsai

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

摘要

In this paper, we use a small open economy model with nontradable goods and time-varying interest rates to investigate the sources of fluctuations in Taiwan’s current account. The correlation coefficient between the implied path of the current account generated from our model and the actual current account data exceeds 0.9, while tests of the cross-equation restrictions also support the model-implied present value relationship between the current account and other macroeconomic variables. We find the consumption smoothing channel, based on the discounted sum of the expected future net output growth, is the main channel for current account adjustment in Taiwan. Expected changes in the real effective exchange rate also account for much of the variation in the current account.

原文英語
頁(從 - 到)2125-2151
頁數27
期刊Empirical Economics
60
發行號4
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2020

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 統計與概率
  • 數學(雜項)
  • 社會科學(雜項)
  • 經濟學與計量經濟學

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