Simulations of the present and late-twenty-first-century western north pacific tropical cyclone activity using a regional model

Liang Wu, Chia Chou, Cheng Ta Chen, Ronghui Huang, Thomas R. Knutson, Joseph J. Sirutis, Stephen T. Garner, Christopher Kerr, Chia Jung Lee, Ya Chien Feng

    研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

    41 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

    摘要

    Ahigh-resolution regional atmospheric model is used to simulate present-day western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and to investigate the projected changes for the late twenty-first century. Compared to observations, the model can realistically simulate many basic features of the WNP TC activity climatology, such as the TC genesis location, track, and lifetime.Anumber of spatial and temporal features of observed TC interannual variability are captured, although observed variations in basinwide TC number are not. A relatively well-simulated feature is the contrast of years when the Asian summer monsoon trough extends eastward (retreats westward), more (fewer) TCs form within the southeastern quadrant of the WNP, and the corresponding TC activity is above (below) normal over most parts of the WNP east of 125°E. Future projections with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) A1B scenario show a weak tendency for decreases in the number ofWNPTCs, and for increases in the more intense TCs; these simulated changes are significant at the 80% level. The present-day simulation of intensity is limited to storms of intensity less than about 55ms-1. There is also a weak (80% significance level) tendency for projectedWNPTC activity to shift poleward under global warming. A regional-scale feature is a projected increase of the TC activity north of Taiwan, which would imply an increase in TCs making landfall in north China, the Korean Peninsula, and parts of Japan. However, given the weak statistical significance found for the simulated changes, an assessment of the robustness of such regional-scale projections will require further study.

    原文英語
    頁(從 - 到)3405-3424
    頁數20
    期刊Journal of Climate
    27
    發行號9
    DOIs
    出版狀態已發佈 - 2014 五月

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Atmospheric Science

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