Simple patchy-based simulators used to explore pondscape systematic dynamics

Thousands of farm ponds disappeared on the tableland in Taoyuan County, Taiwan since 1920s. The number of farm ponds that have disappeared is 1,895 (37%), 2,667 ponds remain (52%), and only 537 (11%) new ponds were created within a 757 km² areain Taoyuan, Taiwan between 1926 and 1960. In this study, a geographic information system (GIS) and logistic stepwise regression model were used to detect pond-loss rates and to understand the driving forces behind pondscape changes. The logistic stepwise regression model was used to develop a series of relationships between pondscapes affected by intrinsic driving forces (patch size, perimeter, and patch shape) and external driving forces (distance from the edge of the ponds to the edges of roads, rivers, and canals). The authors concluded that the loss of ponds was caused by pond intrinsic factors, such as pond perimeter; a large perimeter increases the chances of pond loss, but also increases the possibility of creating new ponds. However, a large perimeter is closely associated with circular shapes (lower value of the mean pondpatch fractal dimension [MPFD]), which characterize the majority of newly created ponds. The method used in this study might be helpful to those seeking to protect this unique landscape by enabling the monitoring of patch-loss problems by using simple patchy-based simulators.