Predicting primary energy consumption using hybrid arima and ga-svr based on eemd decomposition

Yu Sheng Kao, Kazumitsu Nawata, Chi Yo Huang*

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

2 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Forecasting energy consumption is not easy because of the nonlinear nature of the time series for energy consumptions, which cannot be accurately predicted by traditional forecasting methods. Therefore, a novel hybrid forecasting framework based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) approach and a combination of individual forecasting models is proposed. The hybrid models include the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), the support vector regression (SVR), and the genetic algorithm (GA). The integrated framework, the so-called EEMD-ARIMA-GA-SVR, will be used to predict the primary energy consumption of an economy. An empirical study case based on the Taiwanese consumption of energy will be used to verify the feasibility of the proposed forecast framework. According to the empirical study results, the proposed hybrid framework is feasible. Compared with prediction results derived from other forecasting mechanisms, the proposed framework demonstrates better precisions, but such a hybrid system can also be seen as a basis for energy management and policy definition.

原文英語
文章編號1722
頁(從 - 到)1-19
頁數19
期刊Mathematics
8
發行號10
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2020 十月

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 數學(全部)

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