Next generation passive optical networking technology predictions by using hybrid MCDM methods

The evolution of broadband telecommunication technologies has enabled applications over networks, which, in turn, has enabled the emergence of novel network services and applications such as VoIP and video on demand in triggering demand for higher network bandwidth. Passive Optical Networking (PON) is suitable for eliminating bandwidth insufficiency, so national governments and communities are observing the emergence of Fiber-To-The-Home (FTTH) technologies. Ethernet-based Passive Optical Networks (EPON) and Gigabit-based PON (GPON) are two candidates for next-generation PON in bandwidth efficiency. To predict which is more suitable nationally, we define a foresight framework based on hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods for selecting the most suitable PON. The development of next-generation PON, including Ethernet PON (EPON) and Gigabit PON (GPON), is introduced and compared. Experts from industry and academia were invited to predict the most suitable next-generation PON for Japan and emerging economies such as Taiwan. Results showed that EPON is most suitable for Japan and GPON most suitable for Taiwan. Results for the technological foresight can serve as the basis for national telecommunication policy and business product definition.