Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium

Nan Kuang Chen, Shiu Sheng Chen, Yu Hsi Chou

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻文章

3 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

This paper revisits bear market predictability by employing a number of variables widely used in forecasting stock returns. In particular, we focus on variables related to the presence of imperfect credit markets. We evaluate prediction performance using in-sample and out-of-sample tests. Empirical evidence from the US stock market suggests that among the variables we investigate, the default yield spread, inflation, and the term spread are useful in predicting bear markets. Further, we find that the default yield spread provides superior out-of-sample predictability for bear markets one to three months ahead, which suggests that the external finance premium has an informative content on the financial market.

原文英語
頁(從 - 到)106-121
頁數16
期刊International Review of Economics and Finance
50
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2017 七月 1

    指紋

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics

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