Evaluating extreme rainfall changes over Taiwan using a standardized index

Yu Shiang Tung, Cheng Ta Chen, Seung Ki Min, Lee Yaw Lin

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

5 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

The annual daily maximum precipitation (rx1day) is widely used to represent extreme events and is an important parameter in climate change studies. However, the climate variability in rx1day is sensitive to outliers and has difficulty representing the characteristics of large areas. We propose to use the probability index (PI), based on the cumulative density function (CDF) of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to fit and standardize the rx1day to represent extreme event records in this study. A good correlation between the area-averaged PIs of the observed stations and those of the gridded dataset can be found over Taiwan. From the past PI records, there is no distinct trend in western Taiwan before the end of the 20th century, but a climate regime change happened during 2002 - 2003. The dual change effects from both the variance and linear trend of extreme events are identified over the northeastern and southern parts of Taiwan, along with the island's central and southern regions, showing different abrupt changing trends and intensity. The PI can also be calculated using climate projection data to represent the characteristics of future extreme changes. The climate variability of PIs on the present (ALL) and future (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios were evaluated using the 16 Couple Model Intercomparison Projects Phase-5 models (CMIP5). The simulated present fluctuations in PIs are smaller than those of actual observations. In the 21st century, the RCP8.5 scenario shows that the PI significantly increases by 10% during the first half of the century, and 14% by the end of the century.

原文英語
頁(從 - 到)705-715
頁數11
期刊Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
27
發行號5
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2016 十月

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oceanography
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

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