Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of summer rainfall in Taiwan: Contributions from different types of rain events

Wan Ru Huang*, Ya Hui Chang, Huang Hsiung Hsu, Chao Tzuen Cheng, Chia Ying Tu

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

15 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Summer rainfall in Taiwan is composed of four types of rain events: tropical cyclone (TC), frontal convection (FC), diurnal convection (DC), and other southerly convection (SC) that propagates from the nearby ocean. In this study, we accessed the present-day simulation (1979-2003) and future projection (2075-2099, the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) of rainfall in Taiwan by using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model driven by the global High Resolution Atmospheric Model. The results indicated that the dynamical downscaling process adds value to the present-day simulation of summer rainfall in Taiwan and the contribution of different types of rain events. It was found that summer rainfall in Taiwan will increase in a warmer future and that this change was mainly due to an increase in SC rainfall (i.e., light rainfall event). The following trends in Taiwan rainfall were also predicted in a warmer future: (1) SC rainy days will increase because the intensified monsoonal flow facilitates the propagation of more SC toward Taiwan, (2) TC rainy days will decrease as the Western North Pacific subtropical high extends southwestward and prevents TC systems from passing over Taiwan, (3) DC rainy days will decrease in response to the increased local thermal stability, and (4) FC rainy days will show no significant changes. Moreover, all types of rainfall are projected to become more intense in the future due to the increased moisture supply in a warmer climate. These findings highlight how the rainfall characteristics in East Asia may change in response to climate change.

原文英語
頁(從 - 到)13,973-13,988
期刊Journal of Geophysical Research
121
發行號23
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2016 十二月 16

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 地球物理
  • 海洋學
  • 森林科學
  • 海洋科學
  • 生態學
  • 水科學與技術
  • 土壤科學
  • 地球化學與岩石學
  • 地表過程
  • 大氣科學
  • 空間與行星科學
  • 地球與行星科學(雜項)
  • 古生物學

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