TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of summer rainfall in Taiwan
T2 - Contributions from different types of rain events
AU - Huang, Wan Ru
AU - Chang, Ya Hui
AU - Hsu, Huang Hsiung
AU - Cheng, Chao Tzuen
AU - Tu, Chia Ying
N1 - Funding Information:
GFDL released HiRAM, which the related model codes are available from their website at https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ hiram-quickstart/. The data of HiRAM experiments used in this study are available at http://cclics.rcec.sinica.edu. tw/index.php/databases/data.html (upon request). The MERRA reanalysis data were provided by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center, available at http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/ merra/. The authors thank anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions which greatly improved the manuscript. This research was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan under MOST 104-2621-M-865-001, MOST 105-2119-M-003-002, and MOST 105-2625-M-003-002. H.-H. Hsu was supported by MOST 100-2119-M-001-029-MY5. C.-Y. Tu was supported by MOST 105-2111-M-001-001-MY2.
PY - 2016/12/16
Y1 - 2016/12/16
N2 - Summer rainfall in Taiwan is composed of four types of rain events: tropical cyclone (TC), frontal convection (FC), diurnal convection (DC), and other southerly convection (SC) that propagates from the nearby ocean. In this study, we accessed the present-day simulation (1979-2003) and future projection (2075-2099, the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) of rainfall in Taiwan by using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model driven by the global High Resolution Atmospheric Model. The results indicated that the dynamical downscaling process adds value to the present-day simulation of summer rainfall in Taiwan and the contribution of different types of rain events. It was found that summer rainfall in Taiwan will increase in a warmer future and that this change was mainly due to an increase in SC rainfall (i.e., light rainfall event). The following trends in Taiwan rainfall were also predicted in a warmer future: (1) SC rainy days will increase because the intensified monsoonal flow facilitates the propagation of more SC toward Taiwan, (2) TC rainy days will decrease as the Western North Pacific subtropical high extends southwestward and prevents TC systems from passing over Taiwan, (3) DC rainy days will decrease in response to the increased local thermal stability, and (4) FC rainy days will show no significant changes. Moreover, all types of rainfall are projected to become more intense in the future due to the increased moisture supply in a warmer climate. These findings highlight how the rainfall characteristics in East Asia may change in response to climate change.
AB - Summer rainfall in Taiwan is composed of four types of rain events: tropical cyclone (TC), frontal convection (FC), diurnal convection (DC), and other southerly convection (SC) that propagates from the nearby ocean. In this study, we accessed the present-day simulation (1979-2003) and future projection (2075-2099, the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) of rainfall in Taiwan by using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model driven by the global High Resolution Atmospheric Model. The results indicated that the dynamical downscaling process adds value to the present-day simulation of summer rainfall in Taiwan and the contribution of different types of rain events. It was found that summer rainfall in Taiwan will increase in a warmer future and that this change was mainly due to an increase in SC rainfall (i.e., light rainfall event). The following trends in Taiwan rainfall were also predicted in a warmer future: (1) SC rainy days will increase because the intensified monsoonal flow facilitates the propagation of more SC toward Taiwan, (2) TC rainy days will decrease as the Western North Pacific subtropical high extends southwestward and prevents TC systems from passing over Taiwan, (3) DC rainy days will decrease in response to the increased local thermal stability, and (4) FC rainy days will show no significant changes. Moreover, all types of rainfall are projected to become more intense in the future due to the increased moisture supply in a warmer climate. These findings highlight how the rainfall characteristics in East Asia may change in response to climate change.
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U2 - 10.1002/2016JD025643
DO - 10.1002/2016JD025643
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85007203255
VL - 121
SP - 13,973-13,988
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
SN - 2169-9275
IS - 23
ER -