Development of a statistics-based nowcasting model for earthquake-triggered landslides in Taiwan

Ray Y. Chuang, Bing Sheng Wu*, Hsiang Chieh Liu, Hsin Hua Huang, Chih Heng Lu

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

摘要

Earthquake-triggered landslides are one of the major hazards in tectonically active mountain belts, and a nowcasting (near-real-time assessment) model for rapid assessment of coseismic landsliding is crucial for hazard mitigation and management. The purpose of this study is to develop a nowcasting model by using a logistic regression model. We use an inventory of earthquake-triggered landslides from the 1999 Mw7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake to train the model at a spatial resolution of 40 m. We use a multi-stage framework to choose dominant variables for developing an optimal model. Our result shows that the model contains three key variables, peak ground acceleration (PGA), topographic roughness, and lithology, and two essential combined variables, PGA*slope, and PGA*roughness, to enhance the interaction between ground shaking and topography. By using the landslide inventory of the 1998 Mw5.7 Jueili earthquake, the probability threshold of 0.1 is chosen to define predicted landslides, and the balanced accuracy is above 0.95 in the prediction. The development of this model can effectively estimate possible earthquake-triggered landslides with the input of real-time PGA values, and facilitate a rapid response in emergencies based on the potential landslide distributions in Taiwan.

原文英語
文章編號106177
期刊Engineering Geology
289
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2021 八月

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 岩土工程與工程地質
  • 地質學

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