Atmospheric predictability of seasonal climate means: Sensitivity to annual cycle and ENSO variations

The potential for seasonal predictability over the Pacific-North American (PNA) and Asian Monsoon regions was studied. The objective was to highlight the dependence of the atmospheric signal on amplitude and phase of equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The atmospheric signals are found to be slightly higher during the warm events compared to cold events. A quasi-linear increase of the signal with the SST amplitude in winter and spring can also be distinguished. The role of annual cycle phase of the climate noise was also discussed.