An evaluation of WRF rainfall forecasts in Taiwan during three Mei-Yu seasons from 2008 to 2010

Chung Chieh Wang, Fang Ching Chien, Sahana Paul*, Dong In Lee, Pi Yu Chuang

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

13 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) across Taiwan during three mei-yu seasons between 2008 and 2010 is evaluated using observations from about 400 rain gauges. The QPFs, spanning a range of 12-36 h and run for two nested domains at grid sizes of 15 and 5 km, are verified. Both visual and statistical-based verification methods are used to provide complementary results. More emphasis is placed on intraseasonal variation and the diurnal cycle of mei-yu rainfall, as these aspects have been less well explored previously. While the categorical statistics indicate skill levels comparable to past studies, the model performs better for frontal rainfall in May than monsoon rainfall in June. The two WRF domains are found to capture the overall rainfall amount, its general spatial pattern, the increased rain from May to June, and the basic diurnal cycle to a reasonable extent. However, both domains exhibit a persistent eastward shift in rainfall areas throughout the season, from the upwind slope to near the ridge, mainly because of excessive daytime rainfall over the mountains that starts and ends too early (more so in June), combined with insufficient rainfall upstream (in plains and slopes) since the morning. Also, the 15-km domain has total rainfall amounts closer to the observations, but the 5-km domain suffers a larger underforecast with rainfall only at the resolvable scale. Despite this, the finer mesh is more capable of predicting the peak values and local variations in rainfall and, thus, has the same skill with higher hit percentages, especially toward the high thresholds.

原文英語
頁(從 - 到)1329-1351
頁數23
期刊Weather and Forecasting
32
發行號4
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2017 八月 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 大氣科學

指紋

深入研究「An evaluation of WRF rainfall forecasts in Taiwan during three Mei-Yu seasons from 2008 to 2010」主題。共同形成了獨特的指紋。

引用此