An Analysis of Hybrid Management Strategies for Addressing Passenger Injuries and Equipment Failures in the Taipei Metro System: Enhancing Operational Quality and Resilience

This study is the first to systematically integrate supervised machine learning (decision tree) and association rule mining techniques to analyze accident data from the Taipei Metro system, conducting a large-scale data-driven investigation into both passenger injury and train malfunction events. The research demonstrates strong novelty and practical contributions. In the passenger injury analysis, a dataset of 3331 cases was examined, from which two highly explanatory rules were extracted: (i) elderly passengers (aged > 61) involved in station incidents are more likely to suffer moderate to severe injuries; and (ii) younger passengers (aged ≤ 61) involved in escalator incidents during off-peak hours are also at higher risk of severe injury. This is the first study to quantitatively reveal the interactive effect of age and time of use on injury severity. In the train malfunction analysis, 1157 incidents with delays exceeding five minutes were analyzed. The study identified high-risk condition combinations—such as those involving rolling stock, power supply, communication, and signaling systems—associated with specific seasons and time periods (e.g., a lift value of 4.0 for power system failures during clear mornings from 06:00–12:00, and 3.27 for communication failures during summer evenings from 18:00–24:00). These findings were further cross-validated with maintenance records to uncover underlying causes, including brake system failures, cable aging, and automatic train operation (ATO) module malfunctions. Targeted preventive maintenance recommendations were proposed. Additionally, the study highlighted existing gaps in the completeness and consistency of maintenance records, recommending improvements in documentation standards and data auditing mechanisms. Overall, this research presents a new paradigm for intelligent metro system maintenance and safety prediction, offering substantial potential for broader adoption and practical application.