A Decade after Typhoon Morakot (2009): What Have We Learned about Its Physics and Predictability?

Chung Chieh Wang*, Hung Chi Kuo, Yu Han Chen, Shin Hau Chen, Kazuhisa Tsuboki

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻回顧評介論文同行評審

3 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

Typhoon Morakot struck Taiwan during 7–9 August 2009 and became the deadliest tropical cyclone (TC) in five decades by producing up to 2635 mm of rain in 48 h, breaking the world record. The extreme rainfall of Morakot resulted from the strong interaction among several favorable factors that occurred simultaneously. These factors from large scale to small scale include the following: 1) weak environmental steering flow linked to the evolution of the monsoon gyre and consequently slow TC motion; 2) a strong moisture surge due to low-level southwesterly flow; 3) asymmetric rainfall and latent heating near southern Taiwan to further reduce the TC’s forward motion as its center began moving away from Taiwan; 4) enhanced rainfall due to steep topography; 5) atypical structure with a weak inner core, enhancing its suscepti-bility to the latent heating effect; and 6) cell merger and back building inside the rainbands associated with the interaction between the low-level jet and convective updrafts. From a forecasting standpoint, the present-day convective-permitting or cloud-resolving regional models are capable of short-range predictions of the Morakot event starting from 6 August. At longer ranges beyond 3 days, larger uncertainty exists in the track forecast and an ensemble approach is necessary. Due to the large computational demand at the required high resolution, the time-lagged strategy is shown to be a feasible option to produce useful information on rainfall probabilities of the event.

原文英語
頁(從 - 到)2161-2181
頁數21
期刊Weather and Forecasting
37
發行號12
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2022 12月

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 大氣科學

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