A comparison of bullwhip effect in a single-stage supply chain for autocorrelated demands when using Correct, MA, and EWMA methods

Jui Lin Wang*, Ju Hsiu Kuo, Shih yu Chou, Sheng Zhi Wang

*此作品的通信作者

研究成果: 雜誌貢獻期刊論文同行評審

20 引文 斯高帕斯(Scopus)

摘要

In this paper, the three Correct, MA, and EWMA Methods for series demand function model (ARiMA(1, 0, 0), ARiMA(0, 0, 1), ARiMA(1, 0, 1)) have been described, formulated, and presented to examine the influence of forecast-updating methods between order quantity and actual demand in the amplifications of bullwhip effect. By using these forecast-updating methods comparison, the optimal solution of the bullwhip effect control Policies with a time-series technique under a basic one supply chain stage perspective can be obtained. Through the comparison of the more flexible bullwhip effect control Policies, a more efficient demand function model strategy of the parameter setting, using and the integrated application method in the supply chain management procedure was decided to use. In addition, a simulated procedure and systems analysis regarding these series demand uncertainty modeling parameters will be conducted to investigate the fluctuation effects on the amplifications of bullwhip effect. The proposed method permits controlling the retailer orders' variability above the other factors in the bullwhip effect.

原文英語
頁(從 - 到)4726-4736
頁數11
期刊Expert Systems with Applications
37
發行號7
DOIs
出版狀態已發佈 - 2010 七月

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • 工程 (全部)
  • 電腦科學應用
  • 人工智慧

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