Time-lagging interplay effect and excess risk of meteorological/mosquito parameters and petrochemical gas explosion on dengue incidence

Ko Chang, Chaur Dong Chen, Chien Ming Shih, Tzu Chi Lee, Ming Tsang Wu, Deng Chyang Wu, Yen Hsu Chen, Chih Hsing Hung, Meng Chieh Wu, Chun Chi Huang, Chien Hung Lee*, Chi Kung Ho

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In Kaohsiung, a metropolitan city in Taiwan at high risk of dengue epidemic, weather factors combined with an accidental petrochemical gas explosion (PGE) may affect mosquito-human dynamics in 2014. Generalized estimating equations with lagged-time Poisson regression analyses were used to evaluate the effect of meteorological/mosquito parameters and PGE on dengue incidences (2000-2014) in Kaohsiung. Increased minimum temperatures rendered a 2- and 3-month lagging interactive effect on higher dengue risks, and higher rainfall exhibited a 1- and 2-month lagging interplay effect on lower risks (interaction, P ≤ 0.001). The dengue risk was significantly higher than that in a large-scale outbreak year (2002) from week 5 after PGE accident in 2014 (2.9-8.3-fold for weeks 5-22). The greatest cross-correlation of dengue incidences in the PGE-affected and PGE-neighboring districts was identified at weeks 1 after the PGE (r s = 0.956, P < 0.001). Compared with the reference years, the combined effect of minimum temperature, rainfall, and PGE accounted for 75.1% of excess dengue risk in 2014. In conclusion, time-lagging interplay effects from minimum temperature and rainfall may be respectively associated with early and near environments facilitating dengue transmission. Events that interact with weather and influence mosquito-human dynamics, such as PGEs, should not be ignored in dengue prevention and control.

Original languageEnglish
Article number35028
JournalScientific reports
Volume6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016 Oct 13
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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