Target-aimed versus wishful-thinking in designing efficient GHG reduction strategies for a metropolitan city: Taipei

In recent years, many national and local governments claim for a specific GHG (greenhouse gas) reduction goal targeted for many years later. In 2005, the Taipei City government announced that Taipei's total GHG emission in 2015 will reach the same level as that in 2005 and then down to 75% of that level at year 2030. However, based on the estimated energy consumption and GHG emission and the proposed emission reduction plans from the local government, it is clear that these goals are not going to be accomplished. In Taipei, the residential and commercial sector contributes more than 78% of the total GHG emission. Thus, in a business as usual scenario, the total GHG emission in 2030 would be 79% more than that in 2005, far more than the target value proclaimed. As many key factors are uncontrollable by the local government, a target-aimed strategy designing process by looking into changes in Taipei and identifying major targets is proposed in this study. It is demonstrated that such a universally applicable approach will give more confidence to the public on working toward the expected GHG reduction goal.