Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan

Chung Ming Liu, Ming Chin Wu, Sahana Paul, Ying Chen Chen, Shu Hua Lin, Wei Shiang Lin, Yen Chih Lee, Huang Hsung Hsu, Ren Yow Tseng, Cheng-Ta Chen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Runs of three regional climate models (RCMs) dynamically downscaling the outputs of atmosphere-ocean coupling general circulation models (AOGCMs) are studied. These RCMs are NCAR-MM5, NCEP-RSM (Regional Spectral Model), and Purdue-PRM (Purdue Regional Model). A useful approach is developed to compare the variability, error, and spatial distribution of model-simulated results with respect to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets over East Asia and seven sub-regions during the 1990s. The results show that NCEP-RSM outperforms the other two in meeting criteria selected on evaluating the model performance. Furthermore, three super-ensemble approaches are tested on merging RCMs' outputs. The inverse of the square error summation (ISES) method is selected as a suitable method with a generally good performance during the verification period. The projected future climate changes by ISES indicate larger temperature increases over high-latitude continent and smaller over low-latitude maritime areas. Rainfall will increase in summer over the central simulation domain, i.e. the eastern China, but decrease in winter, which are clearly linked to the variation in the synoptic airflows. Also, a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events than what happened in the 1990s is projected. The projection over Taiwan suggests strong warming in summer, followed by autumn, winter, and spring. The interaction between the synoptic flow and the local terrain affects significantly the changes in precipitation. In general, larger change of the variability of rainfall will be over areas with lesser rainfall in the future, while lesser change will be over areas with more projected rainfall.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)265-278
Number of pages14
JournalTheoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume103
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011 Jan 1

Fingerprint

regional climate
climate modeling
rainfall
climate
atmosphere-ocean coupling
winter
downscaling
summer
airflow
general circulation model
warming
autumn
Asia
spatial distribution
climate change
simulation
temperature
method

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan. / Liu, Chung Ming; Wu, Ming Chin; Paul, Sahana; Chen, Ying Chen; Lin, Shu Hua; Lin, Wei Shiang; Lee, Yen Chih; Hsu, Huang Hsung; Tseng, Ren Yow; Chen, Cheng-Ta.

In: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 103, No. 1, 01.01.2011, p. 265-278.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Liu, CM, Wu, MC, Paul, S, Chen, YC, Lin, SH, Lin, WS, Lee, YC, Hsu, HH, Tseng, RY & Chen, C-T 2011, 'Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 103, no. 1, pp. 265-278. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0275-x
Liu, Chung Ming ; Wu, Ming Chin ; Paul, Sahana ; Chen, Ying Chen ; Lin, Shu Hua ; Lin, Wei Shiang ; Lee, Yen Chih ; Hsu, Huang Hsung ; Tseng, Ren Yow ; Chen, Cheng-Ta. / Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan. In: Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2011 ; Vol. 103, No. 1. pp. 265-278.
@article{f511ca7108b7465f9d7c661a73ca9ab4,
title = "Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan",
abstract = "Runs of three regional climate models (RCMs) dynamically downscaling the outputs of atmosphere-ocean coupling general circulation models (AOGCMs) are studied. These RCMs are NCAR-MM5, NCEP-RSM (Regional Spectral Model), and Purdue-PRM (Purdue Regional Model). A useful approach is developed to compare the variability, error, and spatial distribution of model-simulated results with respect to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets over East Asia and seven sub-regions during the 1990s. The results show that NCEP-RSM outperforms the other two in meeting criteria selected on evaluating the model performance. Furthermore, three super-ensemble approaches are tested on merging RCMs' outputs. The inverse of the square error summation (ISES) method is selected as a suitable method with a generally good performance during the verification period. The projected future climate changes by ISES indicate larger temperature increases over high-latitude continent and smaller over low-latitude maritime areas. Rainfall will increase in summer over the central simulation domain, i.e. the eastern China, but decrease in winter, which are clearly linked to the variation in the synoptic airflows. Also, a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events than what happened in the 1990s is projected. The projection over Taiwan suggests strong warming in summer, followed by autumn, winter, and spring. The interaction between the synoptic flow and the local terrain affects significantly the changes in precipitation. In general, larger change of the variability of rainfall will be over areas with lesser rainfall in the future, while lesser change will be over areas with more projected rainfall.",
author = "Liu, {Chung Ming} and Wu, {Ming Chin} and Sahana Paul and Chen, {Ying Chen} and Lin, {Shu Hua} and Lin, {Wei Shiang} and Lee, {Yen Chih} and Hsu, {Huang Hsung} and Tseng, {Ren Yow} and Cheng-Ta Chen",
year = "2011",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s00704-010-0275-x",
language = "English",
volume = "103",
pages = "265--278",
journal = "Theorectical and Applied Climatology",
issn = "0177-798X",
publisher = "Springer Wien",
number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Super-ensemble of three RCMs for climate projection over East Asia and Taiwan

AU - Liu, Chung Ming

AU - Wu, Ming Chin

AU - Paul, Sahana

AU - Chen, Ying Chen

AU - Lin, Shu Hua

AU - Lin, Wei Shiang

AU - Lee, Yen Chih

AU - Hsu, Huang Hsung

AU - Tseng, Ren Yow

AU - Chen, Cheng-Ta

PY - 2011/1/1

Y1 - 2011/1/1

N2 - Runs of three regional climate models (RCMs) dynamically downscaling the outputs of atmosphere-ocean coupling general circulation models (AOGCMs) are studied. These RCMs are NCAR-MM5, NCEP-RSM (Regional Spectral Model), and Purdue-PRM (Purdue Regional Model). A useful approach is developed to compare the variability, error, and spatial distribution of model-simulated results with respect to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets over East Asia and seven sub-regions during the 1990s. The results show that NCEP-RSM outperforms the other two in meeting criteria selected on evaluating the model performance. Furthermore, three super-ensemble approaches are tested on merging RCMs' outputs. The inverse of the square error summation (ISES) method is selected as a suitable method with a generally good performance during the verification period. The projected future climate changes by ISES indicate larger temperature increases over high-latitude continent and smaller over low-latitude maritime areas. Rainfall will increase in summer over the central simulation domain, i.e. the eastern China, but decrease in winter, which are clearly linked to the variation in the synoptic airflows. Also, a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events than what happened in the 1990s is projected. The projection over Taiwan suggests strong warming in summer, followed by autumn, winter, and spring. The interaction between the synoptic flow and the local terrain affects significantly the changes in precipitation. In general, larger change of the variability of rainfall will be over areas with lesser rainfall in the future, while lesser change will be over areas with more projected rainfall.

AB - Runs of three regional climate models (RCMs) dynamically downscaling the outputs of atmosphere-ocean coupling general circulation models (AOGCMs) are studied. These RCMs are NCAR-MM5, NCEP-RSM (Regional Spectral Model), and Purdue-PRM (Purdue Regional Model). A useful approach is developed to compare the variability, error, and spatial distribution of model-simulated results with respect to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets over East Asia and seven sub-regions during the 1990s. The results show that NCEP-RSM outperforms the other two in meeting criteria selected on evaluating the model performance. Furthermore, three super-ensemble approaches are tested on merging RCMs' outputs. The inverse of the square error summation (ISES) method is selected as a suitable method with a generally good performance during the verification period. The projected future climate changes by ISES indicate larger temperature increases over high-latitude continent and smaller over low-latitude maritime areas. Rainfall will increase in summer over the central simulation domain, i.e. the eastern China, but decrease in winter, which are clearly linked to the variation in the synoptic airflows. Also, a more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events than what happened in the 1990s is projected. The projection over Taiwan suggests strong warming in summer, followed by autumn, winter, and spring. The interaction between the synoptic flow and the local terrain affects significantly the changes in precipitation. In general, larger change of the variability of rainfall will be over areas with lesser rainfall in the future, while lesser change will be over areas with more projected rainfall.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79951556229&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79951556229&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s00704-010-0275-x

DO - 10.1007/s00704-010-0275-x

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:79951556229

VL - 103

SP - 265

EP - 278

JO - Theorectical and Applied Climatology

JF - Theorectical and Applied Climatology

SN - 0177-798X

IS - 1

ER -