Simulation and projection of summer convective afternoon rainfall activities over southeast asia in CMIP6 models

Wan Ru Huang, Ya Hui Chang, Liping Deng, Pin Yi Liu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Convective afternoon rainfall (CAR) events, which tend to generate a local rainfall typically in the afternoon, are among the most frequently observed local weather patterns over Southeast Asia during summer. Using satellite precipitation estimations as an observational base for model evaluation, this study examines the applicability of 10 global climate models provided by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating the CAR activities over Southeast Asia. Analyses also focus on exploring the characteristics and maintenance mechanisms of related projections of CAR activities in the future.Our analyses of the historical simulation indicate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg are the two best models for simulating CAR activities (including amount, frequency, and intensity) over Southeast Asia. Analyses also demonstrate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg outperform their earlier version (i.e., EC-Earth) in CMIP5 owing to the improvement in its spatial resolution in CMIP6. For future projections, our examinations of the differences in CAR activities between the future (2071-2100, under the SSP858 run) and the present (1985-2014, under the historical run) indicate that CAR events will become fewer but more intense over most land areas of Southeast Asia. Possible causes of the projected increase (decrease) in CAR intensity (frequency) are attributed to the projected increase (decrease) in the local atmospheric humidity (sea breeze convergence and daytime thermal instability). These findings provide insight into how the local weather/climate over Southeast Asia is likely to change under global warming.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5001-5016
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume34
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Jun 15

Keywords

  • Asia
  • Atmosphere
  • Climate models
  • Climate prediction
  • Diurnal effects
  • Model evaluation/performance

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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