Remote trigger of deep convection by cold outflow over the Taiwan Strait in the mei-yu season: A modeling study of the 8 june 2007 case

In this study, the heavy-rainfall event over central Taiwan during the mei-yu season on 8 June 2007 is investigated, with an emphasis on the triggering mechanism for the deep convection that produced the rain. Observations indicate that there existed two lines of forcing with convection prior to the rain: one over the northern Taiwan Strait along the mei-yu front and the other over the southern Taiwan Strait. Yet, the convection in question developed over the central strait between these two lines, in an unstable environment with strong westerly vertical wind shear. This motivated the authors to carry out the present study. The Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulation (CReSS) of Nagoya University was used and the event was reproduced at a horizontal grid size of 2 km, including the initiation of new convection over the central strait at the correct location and time. The model results suggest a crucial role played by the series of active, persistent, and propagating storms in the southern strait (along the aforementioned second forcing line). On their back (northern) side, these storms repeatedly produced pulses of cold outflow that traveled toward the north-northeast with positive pressure perturbation. With characteristics of gravity waves, the perturbation propagated faster than the cold air and the associated increase in forward-directed (horizontal) pressure gradient force led to northward acceleration of near-surface flow (by up to 4-5 m s¹ h¹). The stronger southerly flow in turn enhanced downstream convergence, and the deep convection was triggered in the central strait near the arrival of the gravity wave ahead of the cold air. When the convection moved eastward over Taiwan, heavy rainfall resulted. The mechanism presented here for remote triggering of convection over the ocean has not been documented near Taiwan during the mei-yu season. With a better understanding about the behavior of convection, these results can contribute to the improvement of quantitative precipitation forecasts and hazard prevention and reduction.