HTTP: A new framework for bus travel time prediction based on historical trajectories

Wang Chien Lee, Weiping Si, Ling Jyh Chen, Meng Chang Chen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a new bus travel time prediction framework, called Historical Trajectory based Travel/Arrival Time Prediction (HTTP) for real-time prediction of travel time over future segments (and thus the arrival time at stops) of an on-going bus journey. The basic idea behind HTTP is to use a collection of historical trajectories "similar" to the current bus trajectory to predict the future segments. Specifically, the HTTP framework (1) samples a set of similar trajectories as the basis for travel time estimation instead of relying on only one historical trajectory best matching the on-going bus journey; and (2) explores different prediction schemes, namely, passed segments, temporal features, and hybrid methods, to identify the sample set of similar trajectories. We conduct a comprehensive empirical experimentation using real bus trajectory data collected from Taipei City, Taiwan to validate our ideas and to evaluate the proposed schemes. Experimental result shows that the proposed prediction schemes significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art and baseline techniques.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication20th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems, ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS 2012
Pages279-288
Number of pages10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Dec 1
Event20th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems, ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS 2012 - Redondo Beach, CA, United States
Duration: 2012 Nov 62012 Nov 9

Publication series

NameGIS: Proceedings of the ACM International Symposium on Advances in Geographic Information Systems

Other

Other20th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems, ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS 2012
CountryUnited States
CityRedondo Beach, CA
Period12/11/612/11/9

Keywords

  • bus
  • prediction
  • trajectory
  • travel time

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth-Surface Processes
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design
  • Information Systems

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  • Cite this

    Lee, W. C., Si, W., Chen, L. J., & Chen, M. C. (2012). HTTP: A new framework for bus travel time prediction based on historical trajectories. In 20th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems, ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS 2012 (pp. 279-288). (GIS: Proceedings of the ACM International Symposium on Advances in Geographic Information Systems). https://doi.org/10.1145/2424321.2424357