Exploring the Temporal Dynamics of Anti-China Tendency in Taiwan’s “Natural Independence” Generation, 2008–2024

The emergence of the “natural independence” (NI) generation in Taiwan has received considerable attention. However, the underlying dynamics of their attitudes toward China remain unexplored. This study develops the concept of “anti-China tendency” and examines its temporal dynamics within the NI generation. I argue that Taiwan’s NI generation is not a static category but a dynamic one that evolves over time, as the generation’s anti-China tendency varies with both birth cohort and age. By employing a holistic age-period-cohort (APC) analytical framework to analyze five waves of nationally representative survey data, this study reveals that anti-China tendency increases among later birth cohorts within the NI generation and that the relationship between age and anti-China tendency follows a U-shaped pattern. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of how Taiwanese view China, as well as the broader patterns of political behavior and socialization within the context of Taiwan.