Ensemble projection of climate change in East Asia

In the present study, the statistical super-ensemble approach is applied on three regional climate model’s outputs initiated by the same global circulation model for the projection of future climate change. The results indicate that the average temperature in summer over East Asia is projected to be increased up to 3.5°c in summers of 2040-2050 and 6°C in summers of 2090-2100 with respect to 1990-2000, respectively. The Pacific high is simulated to be intensified. As a result of this fact, an enhancement of northward transport of air from the South China Sea toward mainland is observed. The northward component of wind over land area is projected to be increased about 0.1-1ms^-1 in 2040s and 1-2.7ms^-1 in 2090s than that in 1990s, respectively. Therefore, the temperature is simulated to be increased over land than that over ocean, and increased over northern latitudes than that over southern region. Furthermore, the intensification of the Pacific high favors more precipitation over most of the part of mainland China and which gradually extends in more amounts northward into northern China.