An Innovative Framework for Building Agency-Free Credit Rating Systems

Chia Hsiang Chang, Wei Chen Liou, William W.Y. Hsu, Jen Ying Shih, Chung Su Wu, Jan Ming Ho

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

We develop an intelligent credit rating system that can provide debtors' rating information without involving credit rating agencies. Several models are used for credit scoring in our work, including the Duffie's model, logistic regression, and random forest. We compare the performance of these models and build an in-depth understanding of the evaluation of credit rating. Furthermore, we propose a new framework to evaluate the performance of credit ratings from multiple perspectives. The framework contains two components, defaulter recognition and rating quality. We use generic indices, area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and log loss, to evaluate the defaulter recognition ability of credit rating models. However, rating quality is more complicated than defaulter recognition. Inspired by rating agencies, we propose indices that reflect stability and migration of rating. We also adopt minimum default distance and rating path for evaluation of rating quality. Experimental results indicate that random forest (RF) has the best performance among the generic indices, but its stability is demonstrated to be 63% lower than the other two models. Similar results were found in the ratings path to default and minimum default distance. In this study, we specify a general evaluation framework of credit rating system and reveal the possibility of agency-free credit rating.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2017 IEEE 10th International Conference on Service-Oriented Computing and Applications, SOCA 2017
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages181-189
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)9781538613269
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017 Dec 28
Event10th IEEE International Conference on Service-Oriented Computing and Applications, SOCA 2017 - Kanazawa, Japan
Duration: 2017 Nov 222017 Nov 25

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2017 IEEE 10th International Conference on Service-Oriented Computing and Applications, SOCA 2017
Volume2017-January

Conference

Conference10th IEEE International Conference on Service-Oriented Computing and Applications, SOCA 2017
CountryJapan
CityKanazawa
Period2017/11/222017/11/25

Keywords

  • credit rating
  • Duffie's model
  • logistics regression
  • machine learning
  • performance evaluation
  • random forest

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Hardware and Architecture
  • Information Systems and Management

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