An evaluation of the WRF Mei-yu rainfall forecasts in Taiwan, 2008–2010: differences in elevation and sub-regions

Sahana Paul, Chung Chieh Wang, Fang Ching Chien, Dong In Lee

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    1 Citation (Scopus)

    Abstract

    This study explores differences in the performance of the Mei-yu quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) in Taiwan by use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in continuation of an earlier study, with particular detailed focus on those among three elevation ranges and four sub-regions at different stages of the season and within the diurnal cycle. Against data from about 400 rain gauges, both subjective and objective verifications are performed to complement each other. The Mei-yu QPF's skill is shown to vary with evaluation periods (every half-month) within the season, with elevation (categorized as plain (0–250 m), slope (0.25–1 km) and mountain (>1 km) areas), and also with sub-region (northern, central, southern and eastern Taiwan). The diurnal cycle of rainfall produced by the model is strong over the mountains, but too weak over the plains. Overall, the model exhibits the highest skill in southern and central Taiwan, where more rain occurs due to forced uplift of the prevailing southwesterly flow over the windward slopes (mainly during the first half of June). In general, the more rainfall there is, the better the model performs (with higher skill) during the Mei-yu season.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)269-282
    Number of pages14
    JournalMeteorological Applications
    Volume25
    Issue number2
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2018 Apr

    Keywords

    • MEFSEA WRF
    • QPF
    • elevation
    • model performance
    • sub-region
    • topography

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Atmospheric Science

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