桃園海岸防風林時空變遷之研究

The land use patterns are constantly changing in Taiwan due to the rapid economic growth. Mostly, the coastal areas are often developed for industrial parks and other utilities. When industrial parks continually replace lots of agricultural lands, the local natural environments and human landscapes are also changed dramatically, for example in the Tao-Yuan coastal area. The purpose of this research is to understand the land use changes in Tao-Yuan coastal area, and to study the effects of land use changes on the windbreaks. The Markov model and logit model are applied to analyze the spatial-temporal changes of land use patterns in the study area during the period from 1978 to 2004. Moreover, we try to predict the windbreaks development situation in the future. Results show that the proportions of windbreak will decrease from 13% in 1978 down to 8% in 2108; while the agricultural proportions also decrease from 68% down to 5%, but the built-up proportions increase from 6% up to 52%. It is obviously that the land use patterns in study area are strongly affected by the built-up development. In addition, based on the logit model analysis, these 6 explanatory variables have significant effects on the windbreak development, including elevation, and distance to farm, water, road, sand dune, and bare/ grass lands. Based on our research, it is very suitable for combining Markov and logit models to predict the spatial distribution of windbreaks, and to realize the location of decreasing windbreak in the future.