A study of two propagating heavy-rainfall episodes near Taiwan during SoWMEX/TiMREX IOP-8 in June 2008. Part II: Sensitivity tests on the roles of synoptic conditions and topographic effects

This study is the second of a two-part series to investigate two rainfall episodes in the Hovmöller space near Taiwan during the eighth intensive observing period (IOP-8, 12-17 June 2008) of the Southwest Monsoon Experiment/Terrain-influenced Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SoWMEX/TiMREX). The first episode moved eastward and the second westward, and both caused heavy rainfall in Taiwan. The goal of Part I was to better understand the mechanism and controlling factors for the organization and propagation of the episodes. Here in Part II, the detailed roles played by synoptic conditions and terrain effects are further examined. Three sensitivity tests (at 2.5-km grid spacing) are designed to include only the effects of synoptic evolution (SNP), and those from land-sea distribution-diurnal variations on top of a mean background with/without topography (DIU/DNT). As the benchmark, the control (CTL) experiment captures the 6-day event successfully and is validated in Part I. In SNP, the two episodes are reproduced with overall similarity to CTL and the observation, and this confirms that the general location/time of rainfall are mainly controlled by synoptic forcing in this case, in contrast to typical warm-season conditions in the central United States. Even so, diurnal effects can still exert discernible impacts and modulate local convective development in many instances, particularly an afternoon enhancement over terrain, and the averaged diurnal cycle in CTL over southeastern China resembles those in DIU/DNT rather than that in SNP (with no land). The steep topography of Taiwan is especially important for its rainfall distribution, including the heavy rainfall on 16 June through processes as postulated by Xu et al.