A structural decomposition of business cycles in Taiwan

The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of foreign and domestic factors on the business cycle of Taiwan. Using a structural vector-autoregressive model of a small open economy (OE), we examine how the influences of these factors differ as a result of trade flows and liberalization efforts. The results suggest that Taiwanese output has remained quite immune to global shocks in spite of the financial liberalization of the 1980s. Furthermore, as Asia has become Taiwan's major trading partner, so too has Asia become the major foreign influence on Taiwan's business cycle. Indeed, in many ways Taiwan appears to have gained resilience from foreign shocks, rather than forfeited domestic stability.