應用馬可夫模式分析桃園海岸地區土地利用變遷之研究

Under the industrialization process, many coastal areas were established as industrial parks or developed regions in Taiwan. For example, three industrial parks, Guan-Yin, Da-Yuan, and Da- Tam, were settled in the Tao-Yuan coastal area. The establishments of industrial park enhance local development, provide employment opportunities, and promote communication construction and house building. However, they also change locally ecological environment, destroy coastal windbreaks and sand dunes, and deteriorate natural landscape. Coastal windbreaks can be used to block sand, protect farmland and man-made facilities. It also protects northwest coast of Taiwan which is often attacked by monsoon, typhoon and salt spray. However, the retreating coastline, sand dunes and changes of landuse affect the development of coastal windbreaks in Tao-Yuan. The purpose of the research is to understand the change of land use in Tao-Yuan coastal area, and predict the development situation in the future. The Geographical Information System (GIS) is applied to delineate the spatial distributions of different land use types in 1978, 1994, and 2004 in the Tao-Yuan coastal area. Moreover, the Markov Model is used to analyze the change of land use, and predict the trend in the future.