資料驅動之模糊類神經網路預測模型塑模與其應用(II)

For time series forecasting problems, this report proposes a novel forecasting mechanism that predicts values with multistep-ahead, and builds a real forecasting system to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed mechanism. The forecasting techniques require on-line learning in order to avoid the concept shift and concept drift, and the key challenges to on-line learning approach include fast and memory efficient, adaptation, and robust to noise. Besides, the challenges to multistep-ahead forecasting result from increased uncertainty from longer forecasting steps. Based on the last year’s results, including the solar irradiance information platform, the proposed prediction mechanism, and so forth, this report presents a very short-term solar irradiance intelligent forecasting system with 5 to 30 minutes ahead and its performance comparison.