石油價格與低生產要素替代性 – 實質景氣循環模型應用 – 以台灣為例

In this paper, we explored the importance of oil shocks in determining the volatility of output level. Traditionally, only technological shocks are considered. In this study, we further included oil shocks in the RBC model for estimation. Based on the paper of Kim and Loungani (1992) and Schmidt and Zimmermann (2005), we develop a new RBC model and find that the inclusion of both oil shocks and productivity shocks provide better interpretation of variations of Taiwan macroeconomic variables. More interestingly, the high elasticity of substitution between labor and oil provides possible explanation and direction of research in the future to explain stagnant growth of wage in the last 15 years or so. However, our model does not well explain the fluctuations of net exports and investment. The plausible reasons are that shocks from exchange rate and financial market are not included. Further understanding about the roles of these variables in RBC model is recommended.