Aiming at the extreme-rain-producing quasi-stationary mesoscale convective systems, this project proposes to study the influence of climate change on the development and evolution of these systems, as well as the associated rainfall amount and characteristics. Using the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS), a control simulation was executed for each case of quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system to be compared with the observations. We then use the 1985–2005 CMIP5 historical runs and the 2081–2100 RCP8.5 future projection run to estimate the future climate change. Sensitivity simulation of the same case was executed with the estimated climate change being added to the current climate background of the control simulation. Difference between sensitivity and control simulation was viewed as resulted from the influence of different climate forcing. The two cases we have examined exhibit quite different results in the future projection. Total rainfall of the 11–12 June, 2012 case moderately decreases, while that of the 2–3 June, 2017 case increases dramatically. Water budget analysis shows that the rainfall deficit of the former case is mainly due to a slightly stronger dry advection than the increased moisture convergence. On the other hand, the enhancement of rainfall in the latter case is resulted from the much stronger moisture convergence than dry advection. In an attempt to understand more of the aforementioned differences, we plan to employ other reanalysis data to proceed with a series of ensemble simulations.
|Effective start/end date||2019/08/01 → 2021/01/31|
- Quasi-stationary rainfall system Future projection Water budget analysis
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